探究新能源汽车采用的“态度-行动缺口

对于新能源汽车,中外消费者普遍存在着“态度-行动缺口”.虽然我国消费者对新能源汽车兴趣较高,然而市场反应仍十分冷淡.本研究基于调查和访谈的研究结果,结合二手数据的分析,对我国消费者新能源汽车采用的“态度-行动缺口”以及隐含在背后的因素进行了探析,并提出了推进我国新能源汽车早期采用的对策建议.     

氢燃料电池汽车全球技术法规研究

《氢燃料电池汽车全球技术法规》规定了氢燃料电池汽车的通用要求及其关键系统的安全性能要求、型式试验方法和型式认证要求,其颁布实施后将对我国氢燃料电池汽车和压缩氢气储存系统的发展产生重大影响。文章简要介绍了该法规草案的主要内容和特点,以及我同氢燃料电池汽车和压缩氢气储存系统发展面临的挑战,并提出了若干建议。     

铁路车辆滚动轴承常见故障及发现方法

铁路运输滚动轴承故障主要有滚动轴承零件、附属配件、油脂、组装压装、转向等方面的原因。滚动轴承常见故障检查判断方法。列检在滚动轴承检查时,要注意采用听、看、摸、捻、转检查方法。听:听列车进站时的车轮振动异响和轴承摩擦声。看:轴承外观故障特征。摸:手摸轴温鉴别异温处所。捻:轴承溢出的轴温质量情况。转:轴承判断轴承内部缺陷。     

Locating road-vehicle refueling stations

This study follows the concept of set cover for proposing a refueling-station-location model using a mixed integer programming method, based on vehicle-routing logics. Its solution uses only the easy-obtain data of the origin-destination distance matrix. A case study that focuses on the siting of refueling stations for achieving multiple origin-destination intercity travel via electric vehicles on Taiwan demonstrates the applicability of the model. Sensitivity analysis shows that greater vehicle range will result in a lower number of refueling stations that need to be sited. Range is crucial in reducing the facility-location costs, and therefore is an important issue in the development of alternative-fuel-vehicle technology.     

我国自驾游与自助游网站的功能综合评价初步研究

自驾游与自助游市场已经成为一个新兴的市场,目前我国学者对其研究尚比较少。旅游市场大致可分为三块：团队旅游、商务旅游和自助游。团队旅游的中间平台是旅行社;商务旅游的中间平台是旅行社或预订性网站;而自助游市场的中间服务平台目前处于探索建设阶段。本文从互联网上选取21个自驾游与自助游网站,按照4大功能指标体系对自驾游与自助游网站的现状和问题进行分析研究、评价,并提出相应的对策或建议。     

A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles

Alternative vehicles powered by electricity or hydrogen hold the potential to solve a number of challenges that relate to automobile use, such as climate change, deterioration of local air quality, security of energy supply, and high fuel prices. This article addresses the question as to how a transition to vehicles powered by hydrogen or electricity could take place. Recognizing that transitions result from joint development of technology and society, a co-evolutionary, multi-level perspective is adopted. The perspective is used to analyze the dynamics of the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers and developments that put pressure on this relationship. Building on the analysis, two sets of scenarios for a transition to battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles are identified. In one set of scenarios, tightening emissions regulation stimulates carmakers to scale up experiments with alternative vehicles, moving them into the commercialization phase. In the other set, rising fuel prices prompt carmakers to first extend their current product line-up with plug-in versions, and later with battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. The two scenarios have different implications for the actors involved and for the requisite supporting infrastructure.     

Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium‐term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm‐level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments' fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle‐western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.     

Preferences for alternative fuel vehicles of company car drivers

Costs of car ownership for company cars drivers and private car owners are very different. Car use, car choice decisions and preferences for car characteristics may therefore differ substantially between these two markets. In this paper, we present results of a study on the preferences of company car drivers for alternative fuel vehicles and their characteristics, based on data from an online stated choice experiment in the Netherlands. Results show that, assuming current car characteristics, preferences for alternative fuel vehicles, and for electric and fuel cell cars in particular, are substantially lower than those for the conventional technology. Limited driving ranges, long recharge/refuelling times and limited availability of refuelling opportunities, are to a large extent responsible for this. Preferences for alternative fuel vehicles increase considerably with improvements on these aspects, especially for the hybrid and flexifuel car. Under the current company car tax system in the Netherlands, which favours cleaner technologies, these two car types are even preferred to the conventional technology, assuming equal catalogue prices and personal monthly cost contributions. Comparing results with those from a similar choice experiment among private car owners shows that willingness to pay patterns for AFV improvements regarding driving range, recharge and refuelling times, fuel availability and diversity in AFV supply, are considerably different for company car drivers than for private car owners. Company and private car drivers may therefore react (very) differently to future improvements in AFV technology and fuel availability. We finally show that preferences of company car drivers for fuel cell and electric cars depend to a large extent on annual mileage. Market share simulations show that potential early adopters of electric and fuel cell cars can be found among people with a relatively low annual mileage.     

Toward a solar city: Trade-offs between on-site solar energy potential and vehicle energy consumption in San Francisco,California

This study demonstrates the trade-offs between vehicle energy consumption and on-site solar energy potential in a city landscape. While higher urban density may curb many of the problems associated with sprawl mainly by reducing vehicle travels and associated energy use, it can also limit on-site rooftop solar energy utilization due to more shade on rooftops in dense urban settings and less available rooftop area per person. Using travel survey, Geographic Information System (GIS) and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, we estimated vehicle energy use and rooftop solar potential in the City of San Francisco as a case study and calculated possible offsetting effects between vehicle energy consumption and rooftop solar potential. Given the prevalence of gasoline-based vehicles and today's solar photovoltaic (PV) panel efficiency, vehicle energy use per capita appears to exceed energy generated by rooftop solar PVs per capita across all density ranges, especially in lower density environments. At the point when electric cars and advanced, highly efficient solar PV panels penetrate the market, the results change based on the combination of different technological options. A significant reduction of energy consumption can be achieved through the immediate and rapid spread of energy efficient technologies in vehicles and solar PVs along with the long-term effect from gradual urban densification.     

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market share variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.